The Fed has used 1/4 of its final clip in an attempt to stabilize markets and cool volatility. Like another heroin injection for the patient it is well received, initially. But by stealing more of savers income he has now set in motion what I call...the end of the line. He has ensured the collapse of equities to the old lows of 775 in the S&P 500. Investors have no choice now but to liquidate substantial amounts of their stock holdings else face a complete loss of their net worth. There is no confidence in paper assets, nor should there be considering companies with an $80 book value can go bankrupt the next day. The Depression of 2009 looms and investors cannot wait around any longer to see if this move by central banks, or anything else they try in the next few weeks can save the system. The equity market is so illiquid that if you do not put in sell orders on the opening, you have no idea if your fill will come down another 200--300 dow equivalent points. Sell now, ask questions later....there are no rallies that won't be sold hard by smart investors now. Get out, get out now and worry about the rest later.....that is the current mantra and I doubt this 50bp cut changes that....if anything it gives smart traders another little pop to sell into and preserve capital. What is more interesting about all this is that none of the current rescue measures do much to prevent home prices from falling further. There are an estimated 10 million homes in the US with negative equity, with only a fraction of those under foreclosure. If prices fall another 20% then the $700 billion being spent on bad mortgage paper will at least have to double to have an impact. The level of uncertainty is reflected in the VIX volatility index.....trading above 50% now....the highest ever seen in the equity market. What this means is that a single day standard deviation move in the S&P 500 is now around $37. With a 98% certainty we can expect the S&P futures to be plus or minus $75 on any given day.





