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October Depression

I don't know what it is about October that makes it a crazy month historically for the stock market, but certainly the volatility in all commodity markets has hit a high.  The grains are off 50%, oil has come down nearly 50%, and the stock market is off anywhere from 35-40% since last October. That must present some real opportunity going forward. The question is what to buy and in what proportions. Short term, the US bond market looks very expensive and we might expect yields to rise significantly due to what certainly will create future inflation (the huge govt bailouts that throw good money after bad).  The unwillingness of the Fed to let anyone drown (except Lehman) will ultimately prove to be a big mistake, as in fact we see now with locked credit markets and a stock market so volatile that no one dare stick their toes in the water.  The US will have to learn to live without credit now and most will remain in denial regarding what is happening around them. The de-leveraging of banks, households, and individuals in the US will continue and unless unemployment can stabilize, we are in for a very scary 2009.  Cash will remain king for the time being until the deflationary spiral ends.  Perhaps, as many previous Octobers have shown, the bottom will come during this month.  It's really hard to know but best to keep putting off large purchases as everything get cheaper tomorrow.

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